Lottery predictions; Bah, humbug. That is what some people say. Others believe that using lottery number analysis to create lottery predictions is perfectly valid. Who's right? Many players are simply left located on a fence without any clear road to follow. If you don't know where you stand, then, perhaps this information will reveal the truth and give you a clearer picture of who's right.
The Controversy Over Making Lottery Predictions
Here is the argument typically espoused by the lottery prediction skeptics. It is going something like this:
Predicting lottery numbers is wasted effort. Why analyze a lottery to create lottery predictions? In the end, it is a random bet on chance. Lottery number patterns or trends don't exist. Everybody knows that each lottery number is equally prone to hit and, ultimately, all the numbers will hit the same number of times.
The Best Defense Is Logic and Reason
At first, the arguments appear solid and based on a sound mathematical foundation. But, you are about to realize that the mathematics accustomed to support their position is misunderstood and misapplied.
First, let's address the misunderstanding. In the mathematical field of probability, there's a theorem known as the Law of huge Numbers. It simply states that, as the number of trials increase, the outcomes will approach the expected mean or average value. When it comes to lottery, which means that eventually all lottery numbers will hit the same number of times.The second misunderstanding centers around the utilisation of the word 'approach'. If we are likely to 'approach the expected mean', how close will we have to get before we're satisfied?
Second, let's talk about the misapplication. Misunderstanding the theorem leads to its misapplication. I'll show you what I mean by asking the questions that the skeptics forget to ask. The number of drawings does it take prior to the results will approach the expected mean? And, what's the expected mean?
With regards to the lottery, the skeptic proceeds to apply this theorem but never specifies exactly what the expected value ought to be nor the number of drawings required.
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